When Brendan Shanahan was officially announced as the President of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the long-suffering organization had taken the advice of the natural storyteller in Mad Men’s Don Draper: “If you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation.” And that’s exactly what they did. After a season where horrendous defensive play and poor management of both the game to game lineups and the makeup of the roster was masked by elite-level goaltending, only to crumble like a structure with no effort put into the details and finish the season with a draft pick in the top 10.
It was predicted from the beginning by those who immerse themselves in the so called “fancy-stats”, citing an unusually high PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) and disturbingly low possession numbers in the opposing end as causes for a potential meltdown. Despite a roller-coaster campaign where winning streaks were paired with losing streaks, and players contributed at inconsistent points — or just not at all — the Leafs just kept on winning. And winning. And eventually, after a March 13th victory in Los Angeles that many called it the most impressive win of the season, Toronto was coming home from a California road trip ranked third in the Eastern conference and nine points clear of the final playoff spot. They were gonna make it, they said. A series with Montreal, they said.
But they didn’t win again for the rest of March. Closing out the month with eight straight with no points, the gap in the standings had evaporated, as did their playoff hopes. Detroit and Columbus, who both had switched to the Eastern Conference starting this year, racked up victories towards the end of the season and secured wild card spots for the post-season. And for the third consecutive season, the Maple Leafs fell off the proverbial cliff and rode the 18-wheeler on the way out, collapsing in as spectacular a free-fall as we have ever seen. The players in Wilson’s 2011-12 group weren’t nearly as good as the current crop (not to mention the goalies in net) and the final 10 minutes of game 7 can be attributed to a freak of nature occurrence that the chances of happening were literally one in a million. This was different. This was seen coming from the beginning of the year, as the team was winning games while being outshot by 10 on a regular basis. And as we saw once the final dozen or so games were played, this team was not a playoff group.
(Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports)
So what happens now, a thought that lingers in the minds of those that cover, follow, cheer, and work for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The core of this group has shades of top-level talent, most notably in Phil Kessel — who has scored 30 goals (or at a rate of in last year’s shortened campaign) for the past six straight seasons — and fellow American James van Riemsdyk, who just recorded his first 30 goal year. Joffrey Lupul had what some could say was a disappointing season, recording 44 points and showing clear signs of a decline that happen to players who are his age with his injury history. Mason Raymond provided some type of secondary scoring, but had far too many flashes of inconsistency, not to mention is easily replaceable if you properly evaluate the market. And of course there’s David Clarkson, the big free agent signing that is locked in for six more years, who had almost double the amount of fights then goals, and who’s presence in the lineup essentially made the team worse.
But what about the youth on this squad? 2009 first round pick Nazem Kadri has taken a fair bit of criticism, despite reaching career highs in all offensive categories and led Toronto’s forward core in corsi, and has been tied to trade rumours during his tenure with the Leafs. While the argument for bringing in veterans with more NHL experience could be made, giving away a talent like Kadri just for the sake of making a move is dangerous (e.g. Alex Steen), and burn teams down the road. Young blue liners Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly also had career defining seasons, with Rielly coming into the league as a 19-year-old and almost seamlessly fitting into the lineup immediately. Gardiner on the other hand, faced his detractors and was a healthy scratch at different points of the season, although becoming more and more the best possession player on the team. In a year where the analytics crowd has battled the mainstream media, Gardiner was becoming the poster child for “you have to have the puck to turn it over”.
Once the season was over, the conversation focused on who’s head was going to roll. And while the move to bring in Shanahan was a band-aid, there is still more that needs to be done, most notably in the coaching position. Randy Carlyle, who was brought in to help improve the defensive system of the Leafs, produced some of the worst hockey played in league history (statistically, speaking). Carlyle’s lineup was giving up shots at a historic pace, and a spectacular season from Jonathan Bernier was hiding the flaws that defined this team. And so, with two and a half seasons of getting progressively worse and worse at generating offense, not to mention pathetic and inexcusable defensive zone coverage, Carlyle has done nothing to earn the right to keep his job. While you can blame players and put the focus on those who didn’t step up when they needed to, who’s fault is that? Isn’t it the job of a coach to help coach his lineup? Players were always caught out of position, and games were painted with the visual proof that no one decided to show up that night. And we haven’t even mentioned the fact that the fourth lines and bottom pairings that this team showed were of AHL caliber for the majority of the season.
But it’s manageable. Yes, there is still something to work with when it comes to the blue and white. The East is vastly worse than the Western conference, and it is much easier to climb up the
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rankings when what you face is average at best. The Kessel’s, the JVR’s, the Kadri’s, the Gardiner’s and Rielly’s, and the ability to build around a young core like they possess is what builds winning hockey. And while the blue line still needs to bring in (or develop) players that can eat big minutes and play well in their own end, along with help unburden captain Dion Phaneuf with such a heavy workload, this team can do things. Enough with overpaying for mediocre free agents and not getting the most out of your roster, and field a lineup that can go up against anyone on any given night.
As I said on this very website in September 2013 the off-season is where major decisions and the future of a team is determined. Last summer proved to be disastrous, and wasted an entire year off this franchise’s existence. What the upcoming summer holds is yet to be determined.
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